In its latest Look Forward research series, titled Look Forward:India’s Moment, focusing on the opportunities, risks and potential for India to strengthen its claim to be a global superpower in the decade to come, S&P has said that while the world is in the midst of an unprecedented period of transition and uncertainty, India faces a defining opportunity to capitalise on this moment. S&P expects India to grow 6.7% per year from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2031, catapulting GDP to $6.7 trillion from $3.4 trillion in fiscal 2023. Per capita GDP will rise to about $4,500.
According to S&P Global, as countries across the development and political spectrum navigate the shared global challenges and expanded opportunities of the next decade, India’s cooperation and involvement will be vital for resolving various global issues. The country has set ambitious targets both domestically and globally to achieve sustained high, stable and inclusive growth. However, the path ahead will not be straightforward, and will require decision-making that considers a vast array of potential scenarios.
India seeks to balance its pursuit of high growth and carbon reductions goals, while also guiding other emerging economies on the journey toward net-zero emissions. The country will also need to adeptly utilise both multilateral and bilateral relationships and affiliations to transition from being a “balancing power” to being a “leading power”, while fostering trading partnerships in all regions.
India’s ability to become a major global manufacturing hub will be a paramount test for its economic future. Developing a strong logistics framework will be key in transforming India from a services-dominated economy to a manufacturing-dominant one. Additionally, upskilling workers and increasing female participation in the workforce will be crucial for India to realize its demographic dividend.
Highlights from Look Forward: India’s Moment include:
- India has come out of the pandemic reasonably well, with GDP growth of 7.2% in fiscal year 2023.
- India’s short-term economic growth will stand on the shoulders of its 678.6 million strong labor force. Getting more women to enter the workforce will be pivotal for future growth, as only 24% were participating in 2022.
- India has an immense opportunity to increase its share of global manufacturing exports, and the government is seeking to raise manufacturing to 25% of GDP from 17.7% by 2025.
- With domestic energy demand set to double by 2050, India will prepare for an energy future that aims to strike a balance between increasing energy access and reliability, while securing affordable supplies and diversifying its fuel mix.
- Share of venture capital flowing into Indian startups will double by 2030; newer verticals to benefit include EVs, space technology, AI, drones, robotics and clean technology.
- Based on analysis of S&P Global environmental, social and governance data, nearly 40% of India-headquartered companies conduct physical risk assessments, and one-third of large Indian companies rate climate strategy as one of their top three material issues.