In its annual Global Economic Prospects Report, the World Bank has slashed its 2023 growth rate projection by nearly half to 1.7%, on the background of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As per the report, given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development—such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.
The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.
Excluding China, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is expected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, reflecting significantly weaker external demand compounded by high inflation, currency depreciation, tighter financing conditions, and other domestic headwinds.
The report says that India is projected to slow to 6.9% in FY23, with the existing uncertain global economy weighing in on export and investment growth. The South Asian region, however, is expected to be the world’s fastest growing, with India driving the growth as the fastest growing major economy.